As De Beers restructures and diamond markets falter, Botswana is making an audacious pivot—and U.S. investors are paying attention

When Botswana and Arton Capital announced their citizenship-by-investment partnership at the UN General Assembly in September 2025, it might have seemed like just another entry in the crowded global mobility market. But the timing tells a different story—one about economic survival, strategic diversification, and the calculated risks of a nation trying to write its next chapter as its founding industry crumbles.

Between October and December 2025, Americans comprised the second-largest nationality group registering interest in Botswana’s forthcoming program, neck-and-neck with Indian nationals. This wasn’t random. For a cohort of U.S. investors increasingly focused on geopolitical hedging and emerging market positioning, Botswana represents something rare: institutional credibility in a region where governance often disappoints.

The Diamond Problem Nobody Wanted to Discuss

Botswana’s economic miracle has always been simple to explain: diamonds. Roughly 75% of export earnings flow from a single commodity, managed through Debswana—the 50-50 joint venture between Botswana’s government and De Beers. For decades, this arrangement delivered predictable revenue and funded one of Africa’s most functional states.

That model is now under existential pressure. Lab-grown diamonds have gutted demand for natural stones, and Anglo American—which owns 85% of De Beers—is actively seeking to divest.

France24 reported in September 2025 that Botswana’s president floated the prospect of taking majority control of De Beers and marketing the country’s diamonds independently. Angola is also circling, creating a regional bidding dynamic that underscores how seriously southern African producers view this inflection point.

This isn’t a company restructuring. It’s the unwinding of the economic foundation of modern Botswana.

The citizenship-by-investment program needs to be understood in this context. With diamond revenues unreliable and traditional foreign investment channels insufficient, Botswana is doing what any sophisticated actor would: creating new capital formation mechanisms. The CBI program isn’t ancillary policy—it’s economic triage.

Why Americans Are Actually Interested

The preliminary data from late 2025 showed 464 expressions of interest from 77 countries before the program even formally launched. Americans ranked second by nationality, with 46 registrations. Nearly half indicated plans to include family members.

For Americans, this interest reflects a maturation in how certain cohorts approach second citizenship. The traditional drivers—travel convenience, tax optimization, retirement planning—remain. But the post-2020 American investor increasingly views citizenship as portfolio diversification: geopolitical hedging against domestic instability, access to alternative financial and legal jurisdictions, and optionality in an uncertain world.

Botswana offers something most citizenship programs cannot: genuine institutional quality in a growth region. It’s not a microstate selling passports to fund its budget. It’s a functioning democracy with transparent legal systems, low corruption, and a track record of political stability that few African nations can match. The passport itself ranks among Africa’s strongest, offering visa-free access across the continent and beyond.

The investment threshold—expected between $75,000 and $90,000 depending on family size—positions Botswana as accessible without being cheap. That pricing signals intent: Botswana wants capital, but it’s not desperate enough to compromise due diligence standards.

For Americans skeptical of Caribbean programs that feel transactional or European programs increasingly under EU scrutiny, Botswana presents an alternative thesis. You’re not buying a document; you’re aligning with a country attempting a serious economic transformation.

The Broader Calculation

Botswana’s framing matters. Officials call it an “Impact Citizenship Programme,” explicitly tying capital inflows to housing, renewable energy, tourism, mining, and financial services development. Whether this materializes as promised remains to be seen, but the narrative architecture is deliberate: this is development finance, not passport arbitrage.

That positioning resonates with a specific American investor profile—those who want strategic exposure to African growth trajectories but have historically been deterred by governance risks or lack of credible entry points. Botswana is making the case that it can be that entry point.

There’s also symbolic alignment.

Botswana pursuing majority control of De Beers while simultaneously launching a CBI program sends a clear signal: we are taking control of our economic destiny, and we’re inviting partners who understand that story. For investors, citizenship becomes more than mobility—it’s participation in a national pivot.

What Could Go Wrong

The obvious risks shouldn’t be ignored. Botswana’s economy remains heavily concentrated in a commodity experiencing structural decline. Regional integration promises have been made before and not delivered. The citizenship program still requires parliamentary approval and operational infrastructure that doesn’t yet exist. Arton Capital promises 60-day processing once applications open, but execution risk is real.

Moreover, Americans considering this path need to understand that Botswana is betting on its ability to diversify before diamond revenue disappears entirely. That’s a high-stakes wager. If the diversification fails and governance quality deteriorates, the value proposition of Botswana citizenship changes dramatically.

The Verdict

Botswana’s citizenship program will likely launch in early 2026, at which point market interest will be tested against actual commitments. The early registration data suggests genuine demand, particularly from Americans and Indians who comprise sophisticated investor segments.

For U.S. advisors and their clients, Botswana represents a case study in how second citizenship decisions are evolving. This isn’t about buying convenience; it’s about calculated positioning in a multipolar world where institutional quality, regional access, and participation in growth markets increasingly drive decision-making.

Botswana is not selling a fantasy of offshore tax havens or European elegance. It’s offering something potentially more valuable: a credible stake in an African nation that’s trying very hard not to become a cautionary tale about resource dependency. Whether that bet pays off will depend on execution—both Botswana’s and the investors who choose to join them.

For now, the Americans registering interest seem willing to find out.